Donald Trump has publicly suggested modifying the 25th amendment (Spectrum News). If he wanted to run for a third term, he might seek to modify the 22nd amendment, which prohibits presidents from having a third term. Since election day, Trump has suggested a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on Congress (EconoTimes).
"Pass" or "change" means the amendment is both proposed and ratified.
This question resolves YES if the United States passes a new amendment to the constitution, or modifies an existing amendment, before the end of Donald Trump's second term of office on 20 Jan 2029. This question otherwise resolves NO on 21 Jan 2029.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Clarification:
A scenario where a legal consensus leads to the National Archivist certifying and publishing an amendment (such as the Equal Rights Amendment) will be treated as the amendment being officially passed during Trump’s second term.
This certification is considered equivalent to the amendment being ratified, even if no new action is taken by Congress or the states.
The precise interpretation depends on what is meant by a legal consensus, but if it includes such certification, it will resolve YES under the market’s criteria.
1,000@Robincvgr On a first look, that sounds correct. Though it somewhat depends on what "legal consensus" means. If such a consensus emerges and, for example, part of that consensus includes the National Archivist certifying and publishing the Amendment, that sounds like the Amendment has been officially "passed" "during Trump's second term" in the senses intended by this question (the National Archivist has recently said they won't publish/certify the Equal Rights Amendment, so changing course would indeed seem to be more like the step of an Amendment passing in Trump's second term, rather than being reinterpreted as already law). This scenario does not require Congress or the states to do anything.
I'm open to arguments if folks have a different view.
The language of "passing" a constitutional amendment makes the resolution ambiguous. Does an amendment that passed 2/3rds of Congress, but then is not rarified by the states count? https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/our-government/the-constitution/#:~:text=An%20amendment%20may%20be%20proposed,in%20each%20State%20for%20ratification.