Will the United States become more authoritarian in 2024?
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Plus
33
Ṁ953
Mar 1
60%
chance
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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opened a Ṁ200 NO at 67% order

Base rate since 2006 = 7/18 = 39%

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index

Trump election chance = 45-50%

I don't understand why this is at 71%

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