Will the United States become more authoritarian in 2024?
Plus
63
Ṁ3909Mar 1
88%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if the United States' democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2025) compared to the last report (which can be found here).
If the United States' democracy score for 2024 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
Other questions about authoritarianism in 2024:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Base rate since 2006 = 7/18 = 39%
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index
Trump election chance = 45-50%
I don't understand why this is at 71%
@Siebe The "data":
This is the Ecommunist, which is left-wing propaganda, and will 100% lower the index in 2024 now that papa Trump is back. You may have had a good point prior to election, though.
Related questions
Related questions
Will the world become more authoritarian in 2024?
73% chance
Will the United Kingdom become more authoritarian in 2024?
33% chance
Will China become more authoritarian in 2024?
66% chance
Will Canada become more authoritarian in 2024?
26% chance
Will India become more authoritarian in 2024?
49% chance
Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?
32% chance
Which regions will become more authoritarian in 2024?
Will Mexico become more authoritarian in 2024?
62% chance
Will the U.S. be more democratic in 2024 than it was in 2022?
25% chance
Will France become more authoritarian in 2024?
67% chance