Global average surface temperature was 1.2°C higher than the pre-industrial average in 2021 (Hansen, BBC). The international community set 1.5°C as its preferred limit to global warming. Previous estimates expected to pass this threshold beyond 2030 (NYT), but more recent ones suggest it may be breached this decade (BBC/UK Met).

To resolve, I will check Berkeley Earth's press releases each January reporting the global mean temperature (for example, here are Berkeley's releases for 2022 and 2021). If they report greater than 1.5 warming in the previous calendar year, then this question resolves to that year.

In which year will global average surface temperature exceed 1.5°C for the first time this decade, or will it not happen this decade?