
The US AI Safety Institute (AISI) was announced in Nov 2023 to pursue President Biden’s executive order on AI.
AISI is subordinate to National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST), which itself is under the Department of Commerce.
President Biden’s budgetary request (for fiscal year 2025) was made in Mar 2024, asking for $65 million in additional funding for NIST, of which AISI would receive $50 million.
So far in 2024, Congress has legislated that AISI receive $10 million in funding from NIST’s existing allocation (H.R. 4366, see pg. 399).
This question is conditional on Donald Trump winning the 2024 US presidential election and resolves N/A if he personally does not win the election.
This question resolves YES if the US President signs into law a Congressional appropriations bill (whether regular or supplemental) that includes an increase in funding (relative to FY25) for US AISI for fiscal year 2026, and resolves NO if the US AISI receives no new funding for fiscal year 2026 (e.g. AISI receives the same funding, a decrease in funding, or is abolished as an organization).
This question does not resolve simply upon Congressional “authorization” (which is sometimes confused with appropriation). Congress might authorize $X billion but not actually appropriate money for that program/purpose, in which case it wouldn't count.
The funding increase is relative to whatever FY25 ends up being, whether it ends up being $10 million (currently legislated to the best of my knowledge) or $50 million (President’s budgetary request) or another number.
See also:
Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that if the US AI Safety Institute (AISI) is reorganized into or succeeded by CAISI, this market will resolve based on funding for CAISI.
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Trumps budget request for FY2026 states 325,000,000 less for NIST this year. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2026-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2026-BUD.pdf
Additionally, the AISI no longer exists; it has been re-organized in to the CAISI.
@cash thoughts?
@RobertCousineau CAISI is a clear successor to AISI, so I'd be strongly inclined to continue this question but for CAISI now.
NIST is down but the remark suggests its only cutting environment-related funding:

That suggests CAISI will receive similar support as in previous years, which would mean this question resolves NO. We'll see what Congress ultimately passes.
Thanks for asking this question!
President Biden’s budgetary request (for fiscal year 2025) was made in Mar 2024, asking for $65 million in funding for NIST, of which AISI would receive $50 million.
NIST's budget is $1.5B, do you mean an increase of $65M?
Also, aren't N/A resolutions deprecated now?
Ah yes. I meant an increase of $65M.
I'll double check that N/A'ing is still possible. Last I read it was possible via moderators. Not sure how any of these questions would work otherwise.