Will the US Federal Government spend more than 1/1000th of its budget on AI Safety by 2028?
34
1kṀ37732028
13%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A follow-up to this poll, but with a much lower threshold. 1/1000th right now would be about 6 billion dollars.
This question resolves yes if, at any time before market close, more than 1/1000th of the US Federal budget is directed specifically to preventing existential risk from artificial intelligence.
I will leave the specifics of what counts as anti-x-risk spending undefined for now, and resolution will necessarily be somewhat subjective.
Government funding for AI research in general does not account, but if the government had a 2027 budget of 10 trillion and spent 90 billion on increasing AI capacity but 10 billion on AI Safety, that would count.
I will not trade in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will non-profit funding for AI safety reach 100 billion US dollars in a year before 2030?
38% chance
Will the US government enact legislation before 2026 that substantially slows US AI progress?
15% chance
If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?
26% chance
Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?
15% chance
Will the US government require AI labs to run safety/alignment evals by 2025?
20% chance
Will the US fund defensive information security R&D for limiting unintended proliferation of dangerous AI models by 2028
43% chance
Will National Governments Collectively Give More than $100M a year in funding for AI Alignment by 2030?
81% chance
Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?
27% chance
Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?
9% chance
Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?
43% chance