Will the US Federal Government spend more than 1/1000th of its budget on AI Safety by 2028?
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2028
13%
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A follow-up to this poll, but with a much lower threshold. 1/1000th right now would be about 6 billion dollars.

This question resolves yes if, at any time before market close, more than 1/1000th of the US Federal budget is directed specifically to preventing existential risk from artificial intelligence.

I will leave the specifics of what counts as anti-x-risk spending undefined for now, and resolution will necessarily be somewhat subjective.

Government funding for AI research in general does not account, but if the government had a 2027 budget of 10 trillion and spent 90 billion on increasing AI capacity but 10 billion on AI Safety, that would count.

I will not trade in this market.

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