This market deals with a combination of questions, namely:
Will the United States create caps on AI training runs before January 1, 2026?
The US will be considered to have instituted caps on AI training runs if, by means of legislation, treaty, executive order, or court ruling, training runs larger than a certain size are broadly prohibited. The threshold may be measured by FLOPs, monetary cost, electricity use, parameter count, training data, some combination of these, or similar.
A licensing requirement alone would not be sufficient to qualify as a cap.
Who will win the 2024 United States Presidential election? The options given are Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Robert F. Kennedy Jr, and another option for "other". The candidate does not necessarily have to take office to be counted as the winner, only the election itself (as judged by the electoral college and US courts) matters.
The options are divided into combinations of the answers to these two questions, with an additional option for if caps are instituted before the election even happens. Resolves to a single answer.