Which milestone occurs first: AGI deployment, Starship Mars landing, or ice-free Arctic summer?

Question

This market resolves based on which of these major events occurs first:

Public AGI deployment (announced by major AI company)

SpaceX Starship successfully lands on Mars (confirmed by SpaceX)

First Ice-free Arctic summer day (<100k km² sea ice, confirmed by NASA/NSIDC)

Resolves N/A if none occur by Dec 31, 2029.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Public AGI Deployment, followed by Ice-free Arctic Summer and SpaceX Starship Mars Landing are most likely. See the market for live updates (6 traders, as of Jul 16, 2025).

People are also trading

Related questions