Which milestone occurs first: AGI deployment, Starship Mars landing, or ice-free Arctic summer?
6
100Ṁ2102029
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
54%
Public AGI Deployment
12%
SpaceX Starship Mars Landing
34%
Ice-free Arctic Summer
This market resolves based on which of these major events occurs first:
Public AGI deployment (announced by major AI company)
SpaceX Starship successfully lands on Mars (confirmed by SpaceX)
First Ice-free Arctic summer day (<100k km² sea ice, confirmed by NASA/NSIDC)
Resolves N/A if none occur by Dec 31, 2029.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
When will a human first set foot on Mars?
When will Starship land on Mars?
WHERE will Starship first land on Mars?
When will Starship successfully land for the first time?
3/17/26
Will a human land on mars before ASI is achieved
53% chance
Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?
29% chance
Will a Starship land on Mars before the MSR samples are picked up?
80% chance
Where will the first crewed Starship landing happen?
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?
When will the first Mars landing occur?