Which milestone occurs first: AGI deployment, Starship Mars landing, or ice-free Arctic summer?
5
100Ṁ1802029
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
38%
Public AGI Deployment
9%
SpaceX Starship Mars Landing
54%
Ice-free Arctic Summer
This market resolves based on which of these major events occurs first:
Public AGI deployment (announced by major AI company)
SpaceX Starship successfully lands on Mars (confirmed by SpaceX)
First Ice-free Arctic summer day (<100k km² sea ice, confirmed by NASA/NSIDC)
Resolves N/A if none occur by Dec 31, 2029.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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