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MANIFOLD
Will rusian lunar module luna-25 land succesfully on target area on Moon?
73
Ṁ1.4kṀ20k
resolved Aug 20
Resolved
NO

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_25
resolution will be en wiki based. Landing is expected 25 Aug 2023.

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Resolves No based on Roscosmos statement

predictedNO

Wiki page has been updated to reflect the lunar module has crashed.
"Luna 25 crashed following issues during de-orbiting.[11] "

predictedNO

The Wikipedia page now says:

Luna 25 was a Russian lunar lander mission by Roscosmos[7] that was scheduled to land near the lunar south pole at the crater Boguslawsky. It crashed on the moon's surface on 20th August 2023 after technical glitches. [2][8]

From Roscosmos telegram channel (https://t.me/roscosmos_gk/10540):

🔴 19 августа в соответствии с программой полёта КА «Луна-25» была предусмотрена выдача импульса для формирования его предпосадочной эллиптической орбиты.

Около 14:57 мск связь с КА «Луна-25» прервалась.

Реализованные 19 и 20 августа мероприятия по поиску аппарата и вхождению с ним в связь результатов не дали.

По результатам предварительного анализа, в связи с отклонением фактических параметров импульса от рассчетных, аппарат перешел на нерасчетную орбиту и прекратил свое существование в результате столкновения с поверхностью Луны.

Вопросами выяснения причин потери «Луны» займется специально формируемая межведомственная комиссия.

GPT4 translation:

🔴 On August 19, according to the flight program of the satellite "Luna-25", a pulse was scheduled to form its pre-landing elliptical orbit.

Around 14:57 Moscow time, communication with the satellite "Luna-25" was interrupted.

The measures carried out on August 19 and 20 to search for the spacecraft and establish contact with it did not yield results.

According to preliminary analysis, due to the deviation of the actual pulse parameters from the calculated ones, the apparatus switched to an uncalculated orbit and ceased its existence as a result of a collision with the lunar surface.

A specially formed interdepartmental commission will be tasked with investigating the reasons for the loss of "Luna".

predictedNO

Roscosmos:

During the operation, an emergency situation occurred on board the automatic station, which did not allow the maneuver to be performed with the specified parameters.

oops...

predictedYES

@ICRainbow I can't find where this quote is from, source?

page is 403ing for me, but here’s a related post on telegram:

Сегодня в соответствии с программой полёта «Луны-25», в 14:10 был выдан импульс для  перехода станции на предпосадочную орбиту.

В ходе выполнения операции, на борту автоматической станции произошла нештатная ситуация, которая не позволила выполнить маневр с заданными параметрами.

В настоящее время специалистами группы управления ведется анализ ситуации.

ChatGPT translation:

Today, in accordance with the flight program of "Luna-25", at 14:10, a pulse was issued for the transition of the station to the pre-landing orbit.

During the operation, an abnormal situation occurred on board the automatic station, which did not allow the maneuver to be performed with the specified parameters.

Currently, specialists of the control group are analyzing the situation.

Whether or not they just say it does is the real question

predictedNO

@JosephMarton that would be unmeasurable, I affraid. But I think they wouldnt be able to produce a decent fake.

Lunar landers haven't been doing very well recently. I hope they break the trend, but...