Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Astrobotic's Griffin-1 lunar lander successfully completes a soft landing on the surface of the Moon and transmits data back to Earth from the lunar surface.

Specifically, resolution requires:

• The Griffin-1 spacecraft achieves a soft landing on the Moon.

• The lander, or at least one of its onboard payloads, successfully transmits operational telemetry or scientific/engineering data to Earth after touchdown.

• The successful landing and transmission are confirmed by official sources, such as Astrobotic, NASA, or reputable space news outlets.

This market will resolve to NO if:

• The lander crashes, is destroyed, or fails to make a soft landing.

• The lander makes contact with the Moon but is unable to transmit any data back to Earth post-touchdown (e.g., due to immediate power or communications loss).

• The mission is officially canceled, or the spacecraft is lost prior to attempting a lunar landing.

If the launch of Griffin-1 is delayed, this market will remain open until the landing attempt is made or the mission is officially canceled. If the spacecraft has not launched by December 31, 2028, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

Griffin Mission One (Griffin-1) is a lunar lander mission developed by Astrobotic Technology as part of NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program. Following the cancellation of NASA's VIPER rover, the lander's primary payload was shifted to Astrolab's FLIP (FLEX Lunar Innovation Platform) rover. It will also carry Astrobotic's CubeRover and other commercial and scientific instruments.

The mission is scheduled to launch no earlier than late 2026 on a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket, targeting the Nobile Crater region near the lunar South Pole. This represents Astrobotic's second lunar lander attempt, following the Peregrine Mission One in January 2024, which suffered a critical propulsion system anomaly shortly after launch and was unable to attempt a landing.

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