Will a Boeing passenger aircraft be involved in a fatal accident in 2023?
15
290Ṁ1454
resolved Dec 31
Resolved
NO

Fatality must be ruled a result of mechanical failure or pilot error. (Health issues with passengers unrelated to the airframe do not count, nor do intentional acts.)

I will wait for NTSB or equivalent reports to resolve, so this market may resolve in mid-2024.

Jan 10, 1:06pm: Will there be a fatal Boeing airliner accident in 2023? → Will a Boeing passenger aircraft be involved in a fatal accident in 2023?

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Can you clarify the difference between this market and your other Boeing market? This market includes either mechanical or pilot; the other one is mechanical only?

@TANSTAAFL That is correct. This one was created so that pilot error is included. The other one is focused only on airframe and maintenance issues.

Do you include Boeing military passenger aircraft, and rotary-wing aircraft?

@WXTJ Good question. My intent was passenger airliners, but I wrote aircraft, so we'll include military passenger aircraft too.

predictedNO

@brp Thank you for clarifying. I would include military personnel transport helicopters in Boeing 'passenger aircraft' as well, will you include rotary-wing passenger aircraft too?

@WXTJ Yes. It was not my intent, but helicopters are aircraft.

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