On which airline will the next major aviation disaster occur?

1.3kṀ9855

resolved Jun 12

100%98.8%Other

0.2%

Delta Air Lines

0.1%

Malaysia Airlines

0.1%

Southwest Airlines

0.1%

American Airlines

0.1%

United Airlines

0.1%

China Southern Airlines

0.2%

Lufthansa Group

0.1%

Aeroflot (Russian airlines)

0.1%

Frontier airlines

0.1%

No airline involved

Resolves 100% to whichever airline has the next airline disaster with more than 200 fatalities (as defined by this wikipedia article).

I will ignore vandalism. If there is uncertainty about numbers of causalities I will wait to resolve until we know more

Update 2025-03-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Inclusion Scope Update:
- The market now considers aviation disasters as defined in the referenced Wikipedia article. This includes incidents involving military aircraft.
- An option for no airlines involved will be added, to account for disasters where no airline is operated.

Airline Industry

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bought Ṁ500 YES

should resolve other (air india): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_India_Flight_171

bought Ṁ5,000 YES

@phenomist Thanks for the heads up!

bought Ṁ20 YES

Does this include military aviation incidents, or only commercial? The title says "aviation disaster" (implies either), but the description says "airline disaster" (implies commercial).

e.g. the most recent incident with over 200 fatalities was a military transport crash: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Algerian_Air_Force_Ilyushin_Il-76_crash

bought Ṁ500 NO

@jcb Good question, it’s aviation disaster. That military transport crash is listed in the wikipedia article linked in the description as well. I’ll add “no airlines involved” as an option and I believe that resolves the inconsistency

bought Ṁ750 YES

https://www.foxnews.com/world/delta-up-side-down-plane-crash-toronto-airport-marks-north-americas-4th-major-aviation-disaster-month

resolves delta?

@ian description says 200 fatalities

@DylanSlagh oops

Jeju air disaster was close! Hard to believe they’ll find 30 more deaths though

Just realized that it might have been good to make these independent as multiple airlines can be part of the same disaster. If two (or more) airlines have planes as part of the disaster then it resolves equally to both