On which airline will the next major aviation disaster occur?
34
1.3kṀ4355
2100
50%
Other
11%
No airline involved
9%
Aeroflot (Russian airlines)
7%
Delta Air Lines
6%
Frontier airlines
4%
Lufthansa Group
3%
Malaysia Airlines
3%
China Southern Airlines
3%
American Airlines
2%
Southwest Airlines
2%
United Airlines

Resolves 100% to whichever airline has the next airline disaster with more than 200 fatalities (as defined by this wikipedia article).

I will ignore vandalism. If there is uncertainty about numbers of causalities I will wait to resolve until we know more

  • Update 2025-03-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Inclusion Scope Update:

    • The market now considers aviation disasters as defined in the referenced Wikipedia article. This includes incidents involving military aircraft.

    • An option for no airlines involved will be added, to account for disasters where no airline is operated.

Airline Industry
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will there be a major aviation accident this year with greater loss of life than 2023?
26% chance
Will there be another plane crash in US airspace with >= 20 victims (fatalities) in 2025?
13% chance
How many aviation accidents and incidents will occur in the United States in 2025?
Which of these disasters will strike the world next?
Will any "DEI hire" pilot on a US airline make a mistake that results in at least one other person's death before 2028?
43% chance
Will there be a plane crash with ≥100 victims in Russia in 2025?
16% chance
Which will be the next airline to operate a supersonic airliner?
Will a commercial passenger airliner be hijacked anywhere in the world by the end of 2025?
12% chance
Fatal Canadian airliner incident by end of 2027?
25% chance
Which will be the next three airlines to operate a supersonic airliner?
Sort by:
bought Ṁ20 YES

Does this include military aviation incidents, or only commercial? The title says "aviation disaster" (implies either), but the description says "airline disaster" (implies commercial).

e.g. the most recent incident with over 200 fatalities was a military transport crash: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Algerian_Air_Force_Ilyushin_Il-76_crash

bought Ṁ500 NO

@jcb Good question, it’s aviation disaster. That military transport crash is listed in the wikipedia article linked in the description as well. I’ll add “no airlines involved” as an option and I believe that resolves the inconsistency

bought Ṁ750 YES

https://www.foxnews.com/world/delta-up-side-down-plane-crash-toronto-airport-marks-north-americas-4th-major-aviation-disaster-month

resolves delta?

@ian description says 200 fatalities

@DylanSlagh oops

Jeju air disaster was close! Hard to believe they’ll find 30 more deaths though

Just realized that it might have been good to make these independent as multiple airlines can be part of the same disaster. If two (or more) airlines have planes as part of the disaster then it resolves equally to both

People are also trading

Will there be a major aviation accident this year with greater loss of life than 2023?
26% chance
Will there be another plane crash in US airspace with >= 20 victims (fatalities) in 2025?
13% chance
How many aviation accidents and incidents will occur in the United States in 2025?
Which of these disasters will strike the world next?
Will any "DEI hire" pilot on a US airline make a mistake that results in at least one other person's death before 2028?
43% chance
Will there be a plane crash with ≥100 victims in Russia in 2025?
16% chance
Which will be the next airline to operate a supersonic airliner?
Will a commercial passenger airliner be hijacked anywhere in the world by the end of 2025?
12% chance
Fatal Canadian airliner incident by end of 2027?
25% chance
Which will be the next three airlines to operate a supersonic airliner?
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules