Fatality must be ruled a result of mechanical failure. Fault doesn't matter.
Does not include cargo-only flights or military flights.
In the case of partial Airbus manufacture/ownership, I will add probabilities according to Airbus ownership share as listed on Wikipedia. So two crashes with 50% Airbus ownership on each will resolve to 100%, or YES, whereas two crashes with 30% Airbus ownership and 10% Airbus ownership will resolve to 40%.
I will wait for NTSB or equivalent reports to resolve, so this market may resolve in mid-2024.
Jan 10, 1:07pm: Will there be a fatal Airbus airliner failure in 2023? → Will there be a fatal Airbus passenger airliner failure in 2023?
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@Mattfr I already clicked "un-resolve". The problem which appeared clear turned out murky for two reasons: (1) because root cause of an airliner accident is not always immediately attributable and (2) because it is unclear what consitutes an "Airbus" airliner: owned by airbus, manufactured by airbus, or manufactured by a subsidiary of Airbus. I can't do anything about (1), but for the 2024 I plan to resolve (2) by listing out the "flagship" model numbers, for which mechanical failures would reflect poorly on Airbus' safety standards.
On 2 January 2023, two Eurocopter EC130s collided mid-air and crashed near Sea World theme park in the city of Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia. The collision killed four people and injured eight (three critically)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gold_Coast_mid-air_collision
A) Are helicopters included in airliners?
B) "Fatality must be ruled a result of mechanical failure. Fault doesn't matter." How does this work with helicopters colliding? Is rotor blades breaking/separating a mechanical failure so it does count? Or is it likely a pilot error cause and no mechanical failure because it isn't supposed to be able to cope with such an incident?
C) Now rebranded "Airbus Helicopters H130" is that wholly owned by airbus? (No need to answer this if not relevant after answers to above questions.)
@ChristopherRandles The title of the question reads "airliner." Helecopters are not generally considered airliners. "An airliner is typically defined as an airplane intended for carrying multiple passengers or cargo in commercial service." So (A) is NO.
For (B), the answer here is probably NO, too, since the accident was probably not caused strictly by a mechanical failure, but mostly controller/pilot error. That said, it is possible that a mechanical failure was involved and a vital component of the chain of errors that occurred, and so that determination would have to await the incident report.
For (C), YES, as far as I can tell with a cursory scan. Resolution would depend on how the 'copter is described in newspaper reports.
@firstuserhere Still thinking about it. Wikipedia says "The aircraft involved in the crash was a 15-year-old twin-engine turboprop ATR 72–500....". The ATR-72 is sold by "ATR," (https://www.atr-aircraft.com/our-aircraft/atr-72-600/) not "Airbus," but "ATR is a joint partnership between two major European aeronautics players, Airbus and Leonardo" (https://www.atr-aircraft.com/our-aircraft/atr-72-600/), and it looks Airbus has held a 50% stake since it was founded from the ruins of Aerospatiale in 2000. That would make this plane 50% Airbus, so I'm leaning to +50% YES. So if this accident was ruled a mechanical failure (Wikipedia says it looks like a technical failure), I'm thinking about resolving this market at PROB 75% in January, or YES 100% if another accident occurs with >=50% Airbus ownership. Does that seem fair?
@brp mhmmm yeah i had the same thought earlier. Not sure what the partnership is like though. Like, does Airbus provide it's Rnd and the build itself is not done by then, or what, i don't know. Lemme reply back in some time on thay
@brp oh well on Wikipedia it's mentioned that the build is done by ATR itself, as you said. So i guess your proposed resolution criteria seems fair :)