Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?
70
312
1.3K
2027
38%
chance

Propulsion must be electric, but power can be generated from e.g. hydrogen fuel cells as well.

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The FAA regulations that it operates under probably provide a pretty good set of rules for what counts or doesn't, at least in the US:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Aviation_Regulations

Parts 23, 25, 91, 121, and 135 are the ones of interest.

predicts YES

@RobertCousineau they fly above the waves at almost 200mph, but legally they are classified closer to boats than they are to planes so they can have a much larger legal flight distance (since they are legally allowed to get close to empty on their batteries in non-emergency situations). Successful 1/4 size model flight last September, planned full size next year, lots of industry investors/executives, etc.

predicts YES

Neom invested in them. not sure if I should sell my position.

I think commercial operation has to be defined - are we talking regular scheduled service?

bought Ṁ50 of NO

just looking at energy density of the various storage options it makes absolutely no sense to have electric airplanes, but i can still see some investors burning money and making it happen

bought Ṁ2 of YES

Part 23 or Part 25?

@Yves And for commercial service: Part 91 (presumably not), 121, or 135?

bought Ṁ0 of YES

Limit order set at 33%.

bought Ṁ3 of YES

@jacksonpolack Certainly! So I decided to provide a somewhat agressive cut-off year, to keep it interesting.

Distance & capacity?

@ElliotDavies Any flight one can commonly charter from a commercial airline to get from A to B. No one-off deals. I think that rules out a two-seater, but as for distance and capacity, I don't think I could provide a sensible cut-off?