If I spend $50 per week on skincare appointments, will my partner notice (positive changes, when asked)?
30
38
630
resolved Apr 1
Resolved
YES

One hour sessions, to be performed weekly until the end of March. Treatments are to include ultrasound + moisturiser, 15 minutes under alternating red/blue light, and then a facial mask to clean pores, with occasional suction to clean pores.

Resolves YES if my partner says they saw a positive difference when asked on March 30, NO otherwise.

Because this does not resolve based on Manifold verifiable information, I will not trade in this market.

Feb 28, 9:17pm: If I spend $50 per week on skincare appointments, will my partner notice? → If I spend $50 per week on skincare appointments, will my partner notice (when asked)?

Feb 28, 9:18pm: If I spend $50 per week on skincare appointments, will my partner notice (when asked)? → If I spend $50 per week on skincare appointments, will my partner notice (positive changes, when asked)?

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When you ask your partner, will you they be informed of this market existing beforehand? Will they be made explicitly aware that you spent $50 on skincare before asking the question?

@Yitz They don't know about the market or how much I am spending, they do know about the appointments.

My partner does regular skin care, and I don’t notice a difference. Only buying a small amount of “no” because response bias is very possible, but we should also remember that this partner is dating someone who values good calibration :-)

predicted YES

vitamin (retinoid) A very good

bought Ṁ50 of YES

These specific types of skincare treatment have dubious effectiveness without a clear diagnosis, but I guess even if it doesn't do anything, response bias is such that it's likely to be yes anyway. Relationship dynamics and the question itself might change that.

I would bet that they will not notice a difference, but will say that they did when asked

@JimHays Yes, the resolution criteria specifies that I will ask.