If I have a primary partner in that time, I'll ask them to guess how likely they were to be dating me no more than a month later without me having a dating doc. I'll resolve positively if it's <90%.
If they don't want to answer, it resolves N/A
It can also resolve N/A if I (randomly or otherwise) decide it does, so this market doesn't reveal that much information about my potential partners (e.g. about whether they don't want to answer such questions) , or if I don't make one by Mar 31.
ETA Apr 1: I won't bet in this market
Related questions
Update: received ~100 responses, but haven't gotten back to most. Doc was in NYT, but with no link. Going on dates with ~4-7 people due to dating doc at present, and ~2-4 not from dating doc, including two secondaries I knew before dating doc. No new primary so far.
@KatjaGrace (Intend to get back to more, but am busy and disorganized and can't deal with dating many people at once)
@KatjaGrace kick ass --- winning --- I meant to catch you at manifest and ask when the wedding is, but sounds like you've still got massive uncertainty. I'm one of the 100 - (4 to 7) in your inbox but hurry I'm flying off the shelves lmao
What are the base rates? How likely are you to gain a primary partner in the next year if you didn't have a dating doc, based on your past experience? I know that you're not asking the question "will it make me more likely to have a primary partner?" - but still, I think this information might be relevant to your actual question.
Also, I note that on your personal website, you stated "I would rather love than be loved." I would expect that this would make dating harder for you than it otherwise would have been. Do you think it does?
@RobinGreen I've had 5-6 primary partners in the 15 years since I got the first one. However I was dating them for most of that time, so unlikely to get another one. The other substantial periods I was single lasted for ~3mo (? I forget), roughly 1.75y, and this one has lasted most of a year.
Interesting—I think preferring to love than be loved makes dating easier, because you are not scared of the likely outcome where you love someone who doesn't love you back, which seems a big problem for people.
@KatjaGrace Does the usage of "primary partner" mean there were secondary partners?
I've just never saw that phrase before and do not understand.
@KongoLandwalker it's used in the context of polyamory, i.e. dating multiple people at once. A primary partner is a main partner, with a connotation of seriousness e.g. similar expectations to a monogamous partner. I'd say I currently have one secondary partner (i.e. person I am dating much less seriously).
@KatjaGrace why even date non seriously? Are people not self-sufficient and try to fill up their spare time? Isn't that a waste of time that could be directed into research/art/volunteering?
@KatjaGrace no. Having friends has no internal contradiction. At question is only non-serious dating.
@KatjaGrace human race is so weird. Glad that my race is not alike.
So why is non-serious dating not a waste of time? Does partner know he is a non-serious date? What are the aims?