Will I meet new people in 2024?
resolved Jun 18

//Market Conditions

  • I define "new people" as people I don't know or don't know well yet. It includes some people I know vaguely, but haven't seen in years.

  • I define "meetings" as longer personal (not professional) social interactions in which we introduce ourselves to each other, talk, or do something together.

  • If I regret the event in retrospect, I will consider it a failed attempt.

  • I will not bet on this market.

Please ask for clarification, if needed. This is obviously a very personal subject for a Manifold market. If you feel uncomfortable taking part, please don't. It's just an experiment.

//Personal Note

I haven't met any new people in years. My depression and the pandemic played their part. I now have hardly any social contacts besides close family and professional relationships, like my therapist who keeps raising the issue with me.

It's not that I don't like being alone, I do. But it's a strange addiction. Over time, this invisible vacuum of loneliness developed around me. It's something I can barely grasp, something I rarely even think about. Maybe I avoid thinking about it and more often than not I somehow manage to forget about it, just for a while. But it's always there.

I've noticed how this vacuum has changed my personality. To some extent, I have forgotten how to deal with people. I can spend days thinking about trivial interactions. Have I done something wrong? Does this person dislike me? I'm so preoccupied with what the other person thinks of me that it's hardly possible for me to understand how they are really feeling and what's going on in their own lifes. That sometimes makes me think that I'm too self-centered to be around people, but if I'm honest, I have to admit to myself that I really do care about other people, I'm just not very good at it.

I can't say that I'm yet fully committed to this goal of "meeting new people". But I may be ready soon.

It's difficult to change.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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@Lion offered to meet me in this comment section, so I created another market.


I didn't expect this market to be resolved so quickly. Today I met the friend of a former friend who spontaneously wrote to me a few days ago to ask how I'm doing. I haven't seen him in 4-5 years. We're in kind of a similar situation, being more isolated socially, since the pandemic. It was very nice. We'll probably do something again in the near future, go to the movies or something similar.

Hope you guys have a nice day. <3

my new favourite market resolution 🧡 really happy to see this!

This is one of the more heartwarming markets -- a drop of humanity for the soul. It fills me with hope.

Thank you for your participation. It was a little overwhelming to share something so personal and I haven't read through all of your comments yet. I may take some time to reply. ❤

Since you’re soliciting advice I’ll happily offer. Everything I’ve seen here so far looks very sincere and useful. I’ll just share what’s worked for neurodiverse, cautionary example me. I am the beneficiary of time with some Harley Street doctors if that helps. If not then disregard.

You might try starting with a small, attainable version of “meeting new people” and then adjusting it outward as makes sense to you by trial and error. No need for overdo such as “I will meet my soulmate” “I will take Klingon blood oath with three true comrades” etc. More along the lines of “I will go to grocery store and say one kind thing to cashier.” Or depending on where you are feeling, maybe just “I will make eye contact with cashier.” “I will take shower and go to mailbox” — hey if that’s a step forward from where you are now, that’s a start.

bought Ṁ10 YES

Go get em' killer.

@hank 🤣

I can relate to your situation. It’s difficult to change, but nothing worth doing is ever easy.

If I can offer some advice, I think finding a real-life activity that involves other people that you can do on a regular basis is huge. It can be sports, board games, a club centered around a hobby. Literally just showing up regularly, and talking to others who show up regularly is how friendships are born. I say real life because (assuming your daily activities mostly involve spending time on computers/the internet) I think we often forget how important in-person interaction is for forming relationships. For the vast majority of human history, people had no choice but to go meet others in person. Although our society has changed, our deeper human behaviors have not, and there are things that just won’t happen when you’re sitting at your computer.

A real life activity would also probably also help with another issue you seem to be facing: having something to derive your self worth from. You say you worry over what others think of you, why do you think that is? Is the approval of others a signal, maybe the only signal, that you have value as a person? What would it take for you to not care about what a person thinks of you? I think these are good questions to think about and discuss with your therapist as well.

For learning about the mechanics of personal interaction and social dynamics, I highly recommend the youtube channel Charisma on Command. They have many short, informative videos on a variety of different social situations with good actionable advice.

However you decide to go forward, know that you will encounter failure. There will be days where you do something awkward or cringe, days where you find out your connection with someone is not as good as you thought it was, days where you feel like you are doomed to keep living life as a loner. But failing does not equate to failure, in fact failures are absolutely necessary if you are going to succeed. Even when you encounter setbacks, recognize them as a sign of growth, and look back on how far you’ve come.

Not to be someone who just comes in here with unsolicited advice pretending to know what you need. But as someone who has also struggled with not being happy with who I am and trying to change, know that you can do it if you put in the effort. You don’t have to be stuck with the life fate has left you with, you can be the master of your own destiny. Also I have no intention of selling my YES position and would like to increase my chances of making a profit 😉

Betting yes on the observation that by the time someone stops doing vague and painful introspection and begins moving in some direction - they're probably going to get above 55% on a single successful concrete step.

I'm probably even above 60%, considering this poster is articulate/thoughtful and being active on a site with community of people who value traits like that.

If you do end up hanging out with strutheo in person, make like 5 markets beforehand where people can guess what he's like - because I'm guessing a laugh track doesn't play/the beat doesn't actually drop when he walks in a room, but I'm also guessing there will be people willing to bet against me on that one.

Also, feel free to DM me if you think someone who embraces weirdness would be helpful. I can't promise to be positively enthusiastic about all forms of weirdness, but I don't ever feel the "huh, wtf dude" emotion. I can walk through a furry BDSM nightclub on "hot sauce and rubber tube night" and would not be in the least disturbed.

But like, if you wanna talk about TV shows/movies/pop culture I may find that hard to follow? There is a tradeoff there.

I also tend to type like 8 paragraphs where a series of 8 single paragraphs with feedback would likely suffice - or even be preferable since the 8 paragraph message length is more draining to iterate.

🙃 I'm also slightly a loner. Just... unbothered by socializing in the "overthinking it" way? I can probably give some kind of advice on that, but whether it'd be useful isn't something I'd bet on strongly.

@NevinWetherill lol i'm so flattered , i wish i had a laugh track when i stumbled into rooms

hit me up if youre also ever in the states, or going to manifest!

@strutheo I am in the states, east coast. I won't be at manifest, though it looked like a good time last year from the clips I saw - I just have other stuff going on

Not against meetups but I may not have the motivation unless 1) it's about AI X-Risk, 2) someone drags me along as part of their entourage, or otherwise 3) if I compile a shortlist of radioactive hot takes and go with the intent of evangelizing one or multiple of them in front of a whiteboard

Someone could probably make a lidar-powered belt clip wearable device with a small version of something inspired by AI self driving algo - package it up with speakers and set it to detect doorways

Actually, now that I say that, maybe the Rabbit R1 could do that with its hardware if there are dev tools available

@NevinWetherill yeah this is going to be one of those early gimmick apps for sure lol

@NevinWetherill if youre near nyc come to our next meetup (tbd!)

@strutheo I'll keep an eye out 👍

I would also chime in to be very careful with letting the internet play with your personal life. Somebody with bad intentions can easily get into your head and do damage if you're not prepared.

I will double down on what Chris said, though. You've identified the problem, and even have a therapist on your side. I think you're set up for success here if you really want to make a life change here.

You get to make your own luck in life. Luck is just exposing yourself to more positive opportunities. You may take some L's on the way, but, like Manifold markets, you just have to win more impactfully than you lose to make progress.

@Quroe yes an important quote to keep in mind goes something like this - the desperate man offers his hand too quickly to the first one that passes

@Quroe Thanks Qurou, I'll keep that in mind. I'm careful about revealing my identity here. Not because I'm a particularly interesting person in real life, but because I'm exposing myself a lot through these markets and those to come.

The goal of "meeting new people" is a relatively low bar. It's not about making friends for life. It would be nice if that happened, but I'm under no illusions. I believe that the risk for me is rather low here, when showing such universal vulnerabilities as depression and loneliness, to people who don't really know me and when possibly meeting someone just once or twice.


anyone in germany wanna do a manifold meetup?

hi! i empathize with the addictive feeling of being alone, its a vicious cycle/feedback loop

fortunately youve broken out enough to even ask the question , so youre halfway there

where are you located?

@strutheo Thank you, I appreciate that. I'm in Germany.

@redcat ah well let me know if you ever visit the states

hmm wonder if there are some german manifolders that see this

Germany isn't a small country ofc so maybe you're not co-located - but @Soli has wanted to meet some new people/find a Manifold meetup. maybe you two can connect.

@redcat Hey, feel free to reach out if you live nearby. I don't feel like organizing an official Manifold meetup where only two people turn up (and one of them is me 🙃 ) [edit: because no one else lives here...] , but I'd be open to meeting users. I feel NRW would be doable, anything beyond that might be a bit too far. (I live in the German city mentioned in my bio.)