On December 2025, will I be using two rationalist-endorsed drugs at least once a month?
Basic
5
Ṁ932026
59%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I am playing with the idea of using Melatonin https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E4cKD9iTWHaE7f3AJ/melatonin-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know
If on December 2025 I am using monthly at least 2 drugs that are endorsed on Less Wrong or other personalities of the rationalist sub-culture, this market resolves to YES.
I do not use any drug today.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@FranklinBaldo https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y5DLPNc5h65g2BgqA/how-does-long-term-use-of-caffeine-affect-productivity
I think there is controversy around that drug
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?
37% chance
Will I confidently think in 2026 that taking 120mg MDMA once every two months is less damaging to health than drinking two beers every night for 8 days in a row once every two months?
50% chance
Will a drug to be used by most healthy adults be approved by 2043 year end?
66% chance
Will I still think that creatine supplementation is worthwhile for my cognitive performance at the end of 2024?
70% chance
Will Gwern document a new nootropic before the end of 2024?
36% chance
Will I start HRT by 2026?
52% chance
Will 81kilograms be regularly taking estrogen by June 2025?
39% chance
Will I (@Bayesian) take psychedelics before 2030?
78% chance
Will the current shortage of stimulant ADHD medication end before 2025?
66% chance
Will an AI-designed drug get FDA approval by the end of 2025?
30% chance