Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?
49
419
1k
2027
61%
chance

Resolves YES if at the end of 2026, there was any successful or still-being-prosecuted attempt to claw back, from more than 2 campaigns or party treasuries or individual politicians, more than 5% of the funds they received from Sam Bankman-Fried or other FTX executives.

(This is intended to capture the spirit of "there were not just a couple of exceptional cases" and "there wasn't just a go-try-it letter with no chance of making it successfully through the legal system" and "they didn't just settle for 5%". Resolves YES if there's a protracted battle still going on into 2027.)

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predicts YES

I created a market specifically focused on funds received before the 90-day bankruptcy period:

This would mean the funds are being clawed back as part of a "fraudulent conveyance claim" rather than as (just) part of a "preference claim" (see Molly's EA Forum post for an overview).

predicts NO

What do we think is the average size of the relevant donations? That should affect the likelihood, right?

predicts YES

@samb The number of large ones would. Litigating over a few thousand dollars, probably even low tens of thousands, is not likely to be cost effective. Would also be helpful to know which donations went to campaigns that ended in the red -- can't clawback money that doesn't exist anymore, or go after the candidate personally.

predicts NO

@Jason What are the large ones? They'd have to be the ones made to super PACs, because otherwise they're capped pretty low by campaign finance laws in my understanding

predicts YES

@samb I think that's right. Unless there were a bunch of smaller donations using straw donors that were all subject to clawback. If I had reason to think I had received such donations, I would probably disgorge them anyway for campaign-finance law reasons.

sold Ṁ21 of YES

very weird imo that this market is pricing clawbacks as much more likely than the grant recipient one https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-5-of-an-ftx-grant-be-clawed-ba

predicts YES

@samb Generally agree, but that market is limited to "individual workers" and maybe it is slightly more likely the estate decides it isn't cost effective to sue individuals who received grants?

predicts NO

See the link below - this one is priced higher because the asks for clawbacks have already started

predicts YES

@jack They have for individual workers too afaict (FTXFF grantees getting letters at least)

predicts NO

@GeorgeVii I guess the market doesn't know about it yet, nobody posted a comment about it at least.

predicts YES

@jack Yeah never mind I was mistaken. Some EU ppl have been getting GDPR emails for redacting names from Debtors' public disclosures and such
No letters for return stuff as yet I think

Are you counting anything that's voluntarily returned, or does it have to be by dint of legal maneuver?

predicts NO

@PipFoweraker Voluntary doesn't count.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@EliezerYudkowsky Thanks for clarifying!

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