Will 5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from 2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?

Question

Resolves YES if at the end of 2026, there was any successful or still-being-prosecuted attempt to claw back, from more than 2 campaigns or party treasuries or individual politicians, more than 5% of the funds they received from Sam Bankman-Fried or other FTX executives.

(This is intended to capture the spirit of "there were not just a couple of exceptional cases" and "there wasn't just a go-try-it letter with no chance of making it successfully through the legal system" and "they didn't just settle for 5%".  Resolves YES if there's a protracted battle still going on into 2027.)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 42% chance (58 traders, as of Oct 3, 2026).