Resolves to a consensus of popular sources. If there is doubt or uncertainty, resolves to my best judgment. I will therefore not bet in this market. Resolves YES if the basis is modified in a suspicious way to inflate values, or if releases are withheld for a long period of time to hide negative values (not just related to shutdowns/other delays).

Doesn't have to be YOY 2026 numbers. Could be any quarterly GDP statistics release, even Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 2025, say, if I think that evidence shows that retroactively the BEA/US agencies were faking or modifying numbers.

If there is substantial uncertainty or gray area, I will resolve to a PROB, where a YES/100% resolution represents my >80% belief that the GDP stats were modified/faked/ginned up, and a NO/0% resolution represents my <20% belief that the GDP stats were modified/faked/ginned up. I will generally defer to what I believe a well-informed and truth-oriented person would believe, not necessarily what I personally believe, if I perceive that my beliefs are within a limited minority.