US Real (Inflation-adjusted) GDP has increased at an average rate of 3.2% per year since 1929. But some people are talking about AI dramatically accelerating GDP growth.

This resolves Yes if the Real GDP for Q4 2026 is at least 21.55% higher than Q4 2022 (an annualized rate of 5%), according to this chart:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1

The median Federal Reserve economic projection is currently 0.4% real GDP growth for 2023, 1.2% for 2024, and 1.9% for 2025.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1MD

And 5% average Real Growth over a 4 year period has not happened since 1984:

/ahalekelly/will-us-real-gdp-growth-rate-averag

/ahalekelly/will-us-real-gdp-growth-rate-averag-375b43d019df

/ahalekelly/will-us-real-gdp-growth-rate-averag-39fb57b6890a

May 2, 6:42pm: Will US Real GDP Growth rate average at least 5% for 2023-2026? → Will US Real GDP accelerate dramatically over 2023-2026?