YES: Nate Silver wins
NO: Galen Druke wins
The rules and the picks are listed here:
I will not bet in this market. If some intervening events make resolving this market impossible (a dramatic change in the structure of the democratic primary, or something), I will decide between resolving to 50/50 and resolving N/A depending on the situation.
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@Bayesian ah shoot... I searched "Nate Silver" and then "2028 democratic primary" and didn't see it on either so I made my own... pain
Kamala and Booker at 3 and 4 are brutal picks, imo. I love Gallego here as a dark horse, but I would've taken him lower, I think he would've still been on the board at pick 9 or even 11.
Polis at 9 is an overreach as well, so is Cuomo at 10. Bernie at 19 is lunacy. Waste of a pick when you have people like Michelle Obama, Mark Kelly, Ro Khanna, Roy Cooper, Jon Stewart still on the board.