Will Nate Silver win his Way-Too-Early 2028 Democratic Primary Draft against Galen Druke?
Will Nate Silver win his Way-Too-Early 2028 Democratic Primary Draft against Galen Druke?
13
100Ṁ4442028
75%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
YES: Nate Silver wins
NO: Galen Druke wins
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I will not bet in this market. If some intervening events make resolving this market impossible (a dramatic change in the structure of the democratic primary, or something), I will decide between resolving to 50/50 and resolving N/A depending on the situation.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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