Will Nate Silver Win the "way too early 2028 Democratic Primary draft with Galen Druke"?
Will Nate Silver Win the "way too early 2028 Democratic Primary draft with Galen Druke"?
9
100Ṁ1852028
59%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Nate Silver win his Way-Too-Early 2028 Democratic Primary Draft against Galen Druke?
75% chance
Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions
Who will win the 2028 Way-Too-Early Democratic Primary Draft on Silver Bulletin?
Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2026 elections?
36% chance
Will Nate Silver predict the election better than 538, according to a statistical analysis such as a Brier score?
91% chance
Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?
Trump's Second Term: Will Manifold out-predict Nate Silver?
Which of Nate Silver’s four scenarios for the next era of American politics will come true?