In Nate Silver’s blog post on Jan 22, 2025, he outlines four possible scenarios for the next era of American politics:

1. “Conservative Golden Age” – conservative ideology continues to dominate, including a Republican winning the White House in 2028

2. “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!” – liberal ideology dominates again like it did before Trump, including a Democrat winning the White House in 2028

3. “Stalemate” – the conservative and liberal ideologies together remain dominant, but neither one consistently dominates over the other – control of the White House is expected to continue flipping back and forth, including a Democrat winning the White House in 2028

4. “Off the Charts” – significantly new ideologies dominate instead of the conservative and liberal ideologies as they have generally existed for the past 100 years

If Nate Silver states which scenario (if any) he believes is actually occurring, then this question will resolve to that scenario. Otherwise, this question will resolve two years after Inauguration Day 2029 to my best guess of what Nate Silver believes is occurring.

For reference, Nate wrote that he would “put roughly an equal amount of probabilistic weight in each of these buckets” but “[doesn’t] think the possibility can be rounded to zero” of an “electoral autocracy” status quo not fitting in to any of these scenarios.