Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 3)
24
1.1kṀ3849
Feb 6
49%
chance

Manifold is too good at solving puzzles. This one should be more of a challenge. This puzzle is cool, and will add value to your life. To incentivize collaboration and camaraderie, if the puzzle is solved, there is a 5000 Mana prize fund which I will allocate proportionally to the users responsible for solving it or contributing to the social infrastructure required to solve it.

The solution to the puzzle is a sequence of 9 letters (from the standard 26 letters of the English alphabet, capitalization doesn't matter).

Each user gets one guess per calendar day. Let's say you're submitting an answer on January 30th, and you wanted to submit "XABDUGLFM" as your solution, you would write a comment: "1/30/26: XABDUGLFM". Please do not abuse this system; one guess per day, and try not to edit your answers!

Every day, for 21 days (between Jan 13th and Feb 2nd), you will get a hint. You will get 21 hints total, one per day. These 21 hints have already been written. However, depending on the market % when I check each day, I will do something to the hint.

0-24%: I will add a single word to the end of the hint which is a meta-hint about the puzzle.

25-35%: The hint is given as originally written.

36-49%: I will introduce one error into the hint.

50-59%: I will introduce two errors into the hint.

60-75%: I will introduce three errors into the hint.

76-100%: I will introduce four errors into the hint.

These errors will make the puzzle harder to solve. I'll let you know how many errors were introduced for each hint by adding to the end of the hint something like "(X errors)".

After the 21st day, if you still have not solved the puzzle, you will get three more days to think (Feb 3rd-5th). On each of these days, if the market % when I check is between 0-24%, you will get a single word meta-hint. The market closes at 11:59pm ET on Feb 5th.

If you guess correctly, I'll immediately resolve the market to YES. If you guess incorrectly, I'll try to like your comment to indicate it is wrong, although I probably won't bother to do this until people have at least some grasp on the puzzle, so if you submit "BENBENBEN" on Day 1 and I don't like it, assume it's probably still not correct.

There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.

Hints:

Day 1:

Day 2:

Day 3:

Day 4:

Day 5:

Day 6:

Day 7:

Day 8:

Day 9:

Day 10:

Day 11:

Day 12:

Day 13:

Day 14:

Day 15:

Day 16:

Day 17:

Day 18:

Day 19:

Day 20:

Day 21:

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MVEMJSUNP (1-12)

1-12: PHENOMIST

bought Ṁ50 NO

1-12: BENCHMARK

12/1/26 - NIETZSCHE

NIGHTFALL - 1/12

https://chatgpt.com/share/69657a57-c518-8000-bc0c-bc09d89e7c87

Also the book is GOAT’d. Easy top 10 for me.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@MRME It doesn't have to be a word

opened a Ṁ2,000 YES at 45% order

@marvingardens it probably is though. Benko was a word no matter how much @Bayesian says otherwise. King Lipitor (w/e) was too.

If someone wants to give me 50-50 that it’s a “word” (broadly defined; as in not a sequence of random letters). I’ll put up 1,000 man in a side market.

@MRME You can see in your chatgpt response that it's not counting e.g. names of sumerian kings. that's all i mean.

bought Ṁ10 YES

1/13/26: WHATERROR

Because that's what we need to figure out first.

1/12 GAVLEGOAT

@jatloe you're now responsible for keeping up this pinned comment with all relevant side markets

@bens wish me luck

@jatloe good luck, and thanks!

@jatloe https://manifold.markets/Jack1/who-will-post-the-winning-guess-in-z2E2d2dhPO?r=SmFjazE Who will post the winning guess?

https://manifold.markets/Jack1/whats-the-lowest-round-3-of-bens-pu?r=SmFjazE

Lowest% Ben’s Puzzle trades at?

https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-we-solve-bens-puzzle-round-3-b?r=SmFjazE

Will we solve the puzzle before day 21 hint is revealed?

Please add to the pinned comment. Thanks!

  1. Can we bank any number of guesses? If I don't guess today or tomorrow can I guess three times on Wednesday?

  2. Are the 'errors' predetermined the same way the hints are?

  3. What about the meta hint words?

@Eliza no more banking unless I skip a day and give the hints late. I also don't think banking hints will be particularly useful tbh.

@Eliza I'm not going to comment on the errors or meta-hints :-P

13th Jan: KUBLAKHAN

1/12/2026: BURNRAMEN

1/12/26: LIFEVALUE

do you have examples of what errors might look like? are these letter transpositions or like whole words being changed? are the errors adversarial in nature?

@jatloe I will not comment on the errors for this puzzle.

bought Ṁ50 YES

1/12/2026: NEBNEBNEB

errors 💀

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