Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll)

I have a seperate question where you are able to add your own answers for possible moves for yourself, I will play as white and each move will be chosen by whichever answer has the highest probability, this market resolves when the chess game ends.

NOTE: If the game is a draw I have not one so it resolves as NO, and If there are two of the same move then the one with the higher probability is chosen.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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Everyone is focusing on the fact that the market could make a silly move at any time. But of course, so could Dracksath! There's no rules about what kind of moves they will make, as far as I can tell

bought Ṁ50 NO from 91% to 87%

@Tumbles Chess is about making the best move possible. Anything less is a advantage loss to the other side. A whale game will always choose a less than ideal move. Even if the game managed to make no big blunders, less than ideal moves will accumulate. I dont know what level OP is. But anything above 1500 can easily win this game.

bought Ṁ10 YES from 88% to 89%

@ftkurt I'm just saying, I don't know Dracksath's motives! Maybe they will think it's more fun if the chess game gets wacky, and will play moves to push things in that direction. Who knows! 😜

Will cheating be allowed for you?

Moves will be analysed, and perfection/no mistakes gets people flagged as bots usually, you gonna play fair or cheat?

Shouldn't this just trade at 50% because the only good move for either side is to just load up the best chess engine and use the move it suggests? There's no longer any utility in having a human in the loop, so it just comes down to a battle of chess engines, which should trend towards 50% if both sides use the best one.

@nsokolsky A draw is counted as NO. I think there are some uncertainties about how such a game will transpire: will OP use an engine? Will people be motivated enough to use an engine in their voting?

bought Ṁ200 of NO

@nsokolsky you could also bet yes and choose the worst moves possible

@nsokolsky Not really; this is a market to earn mana not to win the game. Hence some traders might find it in their best interest to choose something thats not useful to the game.

bought Ṁ25 YES

@nsokolsky i use this market as hedge against the possibility that some whale will make really dumb move on those markets

bought Ṁ130 YES from 70% to 75%

@nsokolsky >at 50%

right now intentionally losing a queen to a pawn on the second move is at #1, and before it bongcloud was at #1, so no, this isn't going to be that kind of serious market I guess