Resolution Criteria:

• Yes: If either company releases a press statement or SEC filing confirming they have signed a deal to operate specific fields (e.g., in the Orinoco Belt) or have acquired equity in a Venezuelan project.

• No: Mere "talks," "memorandums of understanding" (MOUs), or visits by executives do not count. It must be a binding operational agreement.

• No: Debt-for-equity swaps where they just gain paper ownership but do not take over physical operations do not count.

Resolves in the spirit of the question, as there may be many edge cases here. I will not bet on this market, so as to remain objective. I may resolve to PROB if there's substantial gray area, or resolve to my best judgment at the end of the year.