This market will resolve to YES if at least one individual who was not a passenger or crew member on the MV Hondius during the outbreak is officially confirmed by a national public health authority (e.g., CDC, WHO, or equivalent national health ministry) to have contracted the Andes virus as a result of the MV Hondius outbreak. Otherwise, if no such confirmation is made by the time the current outbreak is declared over by international health authorities, or if all reported cases are confirmed to be passengers or crew, the market will resolve to NO.
Will not resolve YES if other, unrelated Hantavirus / Andes virus cases occur. For example, a couple dozen Americans contract other strains of endogenous Hantavirus every year. These would not be adequate to resolve YES... the etiology has to involve the MV Hondius outbreak.
This would, however, also resolve YES if it's revealed that the passengers who contracted the disease on the MV Hondius had previously spread it to others before getting on the ship!
I will not trade on this market to remain objective in its resolution.
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@traders my much more interesting related market (imo) that no one is trading on:
https://manifold.markets/bens/will-the-origin-of-the-mv-hondius-h?r=YmVucw
@Bandors There are two Metaculus questions you could feature too:
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43468/hantavirus-pheic-before-2027/
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43461/5-non-ship-cases-linked-to-the-hondius-outbreak-before-aug-2026/
Hi, does someone want to trade on this lol? Plenty of liquidity for free!
@bens I didn't follow this. Can you tell me, is any amount of human to human transfer confirmed or is it just a public hallucination where everyone pretends it didn't have a common source.
@Eliza ahahahahhaa that’s precisely my theory!
I think (very weakly held opinion tbh) that there could have been rats on the Hondius that spread it, tbh. But nooooooo one wants to consider that possibility (bad for Argentina, cruise ship companies, stupid virologist crowdthink, etc). Everyone’s like “uhhhh, the couple from Chile went to a landfill with rats to go birding at some point during their three month journey”
@bens Alright, well I can't trade on this because I don't know crap about viruses but my uhhh senses.....tell me.....this is something someone should be able to estimate.
I'll buy some No just in case.
@Eliza ya I'm writing a personal blog post on this now and I'm actually pretty skeptical of my own theory (in particular, the virus is hard to spread to other non-colilargo rats because they'd, umm, get sick and die before spreading it)