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MANIFOLD
Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?
21
Ṁ5kṀ28k
2027
6%
chance

Extending Ms ( https://manifold.markets/bagofsprite/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026-polymar?r=S3Jvbm9zMTc3MA ) 2026 terminating market (mirroring Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026) ) to include 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. (Twenty Twenty SEVEN) Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Background

Hantaviruses are a family of viruses spread mainly by rodents. In humans, they can cause Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS). While Hantaviruses can cause severe, life-threatening disease, transmission is typically through contact with infected rodent excreta, not via human-to-human transmission. Historically, human-to-human transmission of Hantavirus is extremely rare, making the potential for a global pandemic fundamentally different from respiratory viruses like influenza or SARS-CoV-2.

I will not trade in this market.

Thank you to M for inspiring and providing text/ context for this market.

Market context
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What do we think, people? Should I close this one now?

Given

1) original now at 1% for 2026

2)people unlike to want to bring this 6% down, as it ties up mana for a year with low expected return

Not intended, just curious on people's opinions.

I feel it's intuitive this market should be less than the OG, but market dynamics making it not the case, eh against the spirit of "manifold produces calibrated probibilities" etc

bought Ṁ1,200 NO

@Kronos1770 Since this is not explicitly about the MV Hondius outbreak, but rather any Hantavirus-related pandemic then I don't think you can rule out a new outbreak with different dynamics in the future.