Resolves YES if by the end of the year, it appears that at least a loose consensus is that the origin was from contamination (very likely to be rats?) on the actual cruise ship, rather than from someone who brought it onto the ship and then spread it.
It appears like there is substantial uncertainty around the origins, despite early theories that the first case on the ship brought it from their extensive travels through the South American continent (and perhaps a birding excursion).
It looks like local countries (Argentina and Chile) are already finger-pointing:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/world/americas/hantavirus-cruise-ship-argentina.html
I will not bet on this market, so as to remain objective.
I will resolve at END OF 2026! I could resolve to PROB if there's mixed sentiment around the origins, but hope to either resolve to 0 or 100 in the direction of the consensus. I will try to keep my personal opinions as to the origins out of this, so even if I think that this is likely, I could resolve NO if it appears that most rational observers would not believe this.
1,000People are also trading
@bens hmm, actually 10% might be reasonable. Idk, I'd price this around 20-25% likely to be true in some sense, and only about 50% likely for ppl to find this out or come to a consensus that it's true, conditional on that, so 10-12% is probably reasonable.
Y’all I wrote a big fun blog post about this:
@AIBear yup, I agree with the ship doctor being strong evidence for NO, and I forgot to mention it in my article, but actually the ecology of the colilargo isn’t an obstacle:
@bens It's a good market! I like seeing markets that are far more interesting than morbid death toll betting (though that too is important).
I think the causal story is super interesting, too; if rats, reduced strength of evidence for human transmission. A joint market could be cool here too, I might try to make one if no one beats me to it.