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MANIFOLD
Last confirmed case of the Andes virus (hantavirus) linked to MV Hondius outbreak
11
Ṁ1kṀ839
Aug 31
June 9, 2026
81%
Before Jun 11, 2026
88%
Before Jun 18, 2026

Last case of the Andes virus confirmed to be caused by a sequence of human-to-human transmission from the MV Hondius outbreak.

An explicit chain of infections need not be established for the case to be considered linked to the outbreak, as long as there is consensus among epidemiologists that the case is most likely linked.

Options will resolve NO whenever a new case is confirmed after the threshold date. Remaining options will resolve YES once no new cases are reported for 10 weeks.

I will take the date the case is confirmed by relevant health authorities, using their local time zone, even if the case is considered "suspected" or "symptomatic" earlier.

I will not trade on this market. I reserve the option to modify the details of the question based on comments here in the first 24 hurs.

  • Update 2026-07-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The WHO has declared the hantavirus outbreak linked to the cruise ship over. Per the market's 10-week waiting period criteria, remaining options will resolve on August 19th unless new cases emerge.

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WHO believes the outbreak is over (WHO declares hantavirus outbreak linked to cruise ship over), according to market criteria, we will wait until August 19th to resolve the remaining options: obviously unless WHO is seriously mistaken and there will be new cases.

A new case confirmed on June 10th: https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2026/06/11/uk-confirms-hantavirus-case-in-tristan-da-cunha-who-chief , corresponding options resolve NO

never?

@AlanTennant If there are cases after Jun 18th, then all options resolve NO.

@AIBear and before Sep 1st