Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Last confirmed case of the Andes virus (hantavirus) linked to MV Hondius outbreak
2
Ṁ1kṀ184
Aug 31
May 31, 2026
37%
Before May 14, 2026
47%
Before May 21, 2026
50%
Before May 28, 2026
50%
Before Jun 4, 2026
60%
Before Jun 11, 2026
70%
Before Jun 18, 2026

Last case of the Andes virus confirmed to be caused by a sequence of human-to-human transmission from the MV Hondius outbreak.

An explicit chain of infections need not be established for the case to be considered linked to the outbreak, as long as there is consensus among epidemiologists that the case is most likely linked.

Options will resolve NO whenever a new case is confirmed after the threshold date. Remaining options will resolve YES once no new cases are reported for 10 weeks.

I will take the date the case is confirmed by relevant health authorities, using their local time zone, even if the case is considered "suspected" or "symptomatic" earlier.

I will not trade on this market. I reserve the option to modify the details of the question based on comments here in the first 24 hurs.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!