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MANIFOLD
What will happen related to the Hantavirus in 2026?
39
Ṁ875Ṁ4.4k
Dec 31
81%
At least 1,000 cases are detected
70%
At least 5,000 cases are detected
42%
At least 10,000 cases are detected
35%
The mortality rate of a Hantavirus outbreak exceeds 20% in a single country
19%
A human-to-human transmission event in the US is confirmed by the CDC
5%
A vaccine for Hantavirus enters Phase 3 clinical trials
4%
A specific Hantavirus strain is classified as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern
4%
At least 100,000 cases are reported
4%
An effective antiviral treatment for Hantavirus is approved by the FDA
4%
Hantavirus is declared a pandemic by the WHO
3%
At least 1,000 deaths are reported
2%
At least 5,000 deaths are reported
1.3%
U.S. schools shift to distance learning
1.1%
A major sports league shuts down its operations
1%
At least 10,000 deaths are reported

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@GuyCohen @AIBear This option cannot be construed on the basis that this market is about the Andes, and andes only.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I think it is reasonable to infer from the context that "the Hantavirus" is limited to the Andes strain (though official clarification by @GuyCohen would be helpful, I already asked but didn't get it)

.

There are many hantaviruses. Does "the Hantavirus" refer to the specific Andes virus strain that caused the MV Hondis outbreak or does any member of the Orthohantavirus genus (or even the whole Hantaviridae family) count?

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 24% order

@AIBear This matters because fpr the Hantaan virus alone "9,000–12,000 cases occur each year in China" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hantaan_virus) and there is an approved vaccine and few others in the pipeline for some hantaviruses other than the Andes virus.

@AIBear @GuyCohen very important clarification please, the Andes variant mortality rate is high but incidence is very low.