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MANIFOLD
What will be log(deaths) from the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak by the end of 2027?
5
Ṁ175Ṁ556
2027
2.01 log(deaths)
expected
94%
Above 1
21%
Above 2
17%
Above 3
10%
Above 4
6%
Above 5
4%
Above 6
2%
Above 7

Resolves at the log base 10 of the number of deaths caused by the

MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak, as estimated at the end of 2027, according to the average log of values that

• meet the sourcing standards of Wikipedia

• made it into the infobox without looking to me like they were put there to influence a prediction market

• report an estimate of the total number of deaths

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