Background

1. Threshold capabilities

   • Iran currently enriches uranium up to 60% U‑235, with over 400 kg in stockpile—just below weapons-grade (~90%).

   • Analysts from the Institute for Science and International Security estimate Iran could enrich enough for one bomb-grade device within a week, and enough for seven in a month.

Resolution Criteria

1. What counts as “build”?

• Completion or assembly of a full nuclear explosive device (e.g., a warhead or crude bomb), regardless of delivery system.

• The focus is on material assembly. Although if Iran does actively test an explosive nuclear device that would easily satisfy a “YES” resolution to this question.

2. Evidence threshold for “YES”

Must be confirmed by at least one credible external source (e.g. IAEA, foreign intelligence, U.S./European governments, or leaked internal Iranian documents).

• Leaks of verified technical documentation or whistleblower disclosures are acceptable.

• The evidence must surface before January 1, 2026.

3. Timing

• YES if there’s such confirmation before January 1, 2026.

• NO if no confirmation by that deadline.

4. Handling uncertainty or gray areas

• If evidence is inconclusive, conflicting, or only based on circumstantial indicators (e.g. increased enrichment without assembly proof), the question is resolved as “NO”.