Japan has a nuclear weapon by end 2030? | Manifold

Japan has a nuclear weapon by end 2030?

6

1kṀ730

2031

25%

chance

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6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Japan, for obvious historical reasons, is generally against making the nuclear bomb. However:

The JSDF is rapidly growing in strength. In 2015 it was regarded at the 4th strongest military in the world
Japan has been slowly shifting their policies and laws around pacifism towards that of self-defense
With the US-Japan mutual defense alliance degrading, some politicians (such as Shinzo Abe) have stated that possessing a nuclear weapon isn't against their principles
It is believed Japan has enough nuclear power production and advanced technology to make nuclear weapons within a year

(More starter reading on Wikipedia.)

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