Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2022?
52
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Protests have been going on for several days around the country now, following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody, and at least some involved in the protests are calling for regime change. However, large-scale protests have happened before and have not resulted in regime change. Will this time be different?

This question will resolve as YES if the collapse of the regime is reported by a reputable news source such as AP or Reuters by 11:59 pm on December 31, 2022. Otherwise, it will resolve as NO.

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bought Ṁ1 of YES

Oil workers continue to go on strike, and "hundreds" have supposedly been arrested for going on strike. Sugarcane workers are also supposedly on strike, and today, supposedly some steel workers are also going on strike. Oil is the lifeblood of the economy; it is the source of 20% of GDP and is critical to funding the government. Oil workers going on strike was a major precursor to the collapse of the Iranian regime in 1979. Oil workers went on strike starting in September 1978, and the regime collapsed in Jan-Feb 1979. If enough oil workers continue to strike, it would likely spell the end of the current regime, if not this year then next year. Based on 1979 alone, workers starting to strike in October would suggest that the regime would collapse in 2023. I still think 2022 is possible, though, because government funding from oil isn't the only factor involved.

bought Ṁ16 of YES

It's looking increasingly possible. I'm still making contrarian "yes" bets.
https://twitter.com/ksadjadpour/status/1579421429585838083

Related, regarding the Supreme Leader's personal power:

Why Iranian women are burning their hijabs | The Economist:

The regime is rattled, not just by anti-religious protests but also by the prospect of economic unrest. Since 2012, gdp per head has fallen from more than $8,000 to under $3,000. Even as incomes plummet, prices are soaring. The regime blames American sanctions for the economic suffering but Mr Raisi’s policies are exacerbating the collapse. He has tightened restrictions on the internet. The controls may make it harder for people to get the news, but they are also suffocating businesses.

Still, the government shows no signs of backing down. A former apparatchik reckons it needs only half a million loyalists to control Iran’s 84m people. “They’ve learnt from the Shah’s downfall to take an offensive posture no matter what,” says Yaser Mirdamadi, an exiled cleric and relative of the Supreme Leader. Many expect that after a few more days of killing a curtain of fear will again descend over Iran. As a father in Tehran puts it: “Parents will shrink-wrap their girls before letting them out.”

It seems like that last line isn't true; older generations seem to be supporting their children in protesting (see the Guardian article). But the government is indeed taking the offensive posture.

Mahsa Amini death: Iran's president says protesters should be 'dealt with decisively' | World News | Sky News:

President Ebrahim Raisi said Iran must "deal decisively with those who oppose the country's security and tranquility", state media reported.

State-organised rallies took place in several Iranian cities on Friday to counter the anti-government demonstrations, and the army has promised to confront "the enemies" behind the unrest.

Amin, 29, from Yazd, central Iran (‘Something big is happening’: the Iranians risking everything to protest | Iran | The Guardian):

“Yazd is a small religious city and the number of protesters over the past few days was outnumbered by security forces. The government is using force to break people up, they beat them and even shoot them.

“I haven’t joined the protests yet as I am afraid. But in the coming days I may go outside. There are lots of people fighting in the streets, especially brave women and girls. The Islamic regime oppressed them for decades, but they are out there and fighting for their rights. I know lots of women who want to throw away their hijabs, I have a sister and female friends who feel this way. This is a women’s revolution.

“My parents are also in favour of the protests, but they fear speaking up, like lots of other people.”

Farbod, 44, works in advertising, from Tehran:

“I’m very angry and disappointed. I’m a simple man and only want to provide for my family and keep them safe and happy. The government has made that impossible. They have ruined everything, the economy, export, import, culture. I have a teenage boy and he wants to live freely, use social media, wear the clothes he wants to, but he can’t.

“There is no mobile network and internet in the streets now. I have seen police brutality against peaceful rallies for days. They use teargas and electric shockers, and they have killed people, young and old, men and women. The people want freedom of information, freedom to choose their destiny.

“The leaders of the Islamic Republic believe in using any force necessary to preserve their authority, they use Islam as a weapon. I work in advertising, it is my job to know my people and my society, and I believe the Iranian people don’t want [Iran’s supreme leader] Khamenei, the mullahs’ regime, or any sign of religious rules being forced upon their lives by government. Young people in Iran are trying every couple of years to send this message to government, peacefully, but they are jailed, tortured and killed.

There's a good chance that the government's use of force will successfully suppress these protests (like before), but Iranians know this strategy and are fighting anyway. Seems like there could be enough momentum in this one.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I'll make a small contrarian bet of "yes" for now. I think it's much more likely than not that the government won't fall, but otoh, one day it will, and it could start like this.