Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran in 2022?
Worldโ€ขIran
43
1
แน€320
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

This market resolves YES if, at any point between now and January 1st (exclusive; Iran time), Ali Khamenei ceases to be the Supreme Leader of Iran.

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bought แน€10 of YES

I just bought a little "yes," but I think he will probably still be in power at the end of the year. I bought "yes" because if he loses power, a movement that makes it happen could look like what is happening now.

bought แน€5 of NO

Since resolution will be pretty unambiguous, I'll be betting normally in this market, of course.

Let me know if anyone's concerned about edge cases. Otherwise I'll think about it only if things look dicey in mid-December. (The extreme edge-case I have in mind is a coup beginning Dec 30 that doesn't conclusively resolve until Jan 2. I think that should be a YES, but I'm not super sure.)

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