I just bought a little "yes," but I think he will probably still be in power at the end of the year. I bought "yes" because if he loses power, a movement that makes it happen could look like what is happening now.

Since resolution will be pretty unambiguous, I'll be betting normally in this market, of course.

Let me know if anyone's concerned about edge cases. Otherwise I'll think about it only if things look dicey in mid-December. (The extreme edge-case I have in mind is a coup beginning Dec 30 that doesn't conclusively resolve until Jan 2. I think that should be a YES, but I'm not super sure.)