I closed the question because it's pretty clear to me how it will resolve. I will wait for first quarter financial reports to confirm market dynamics but preliminary observations suggest a strong correlation between actualized revenue growth and current valuations.

This is a really terrible question, I'm sorry. Was the dotcom bubble a bubble? Perhaps not, given that tech companies disproportionately wound up as the world's largest and most profitable firms...

@AndrewSabisky The flower industry, textiles and railroads all had significant market bubbles and all those sectors continued to grow after their bubbles collapsed. Bubbles are about current valuations and have very little to do with a sector's long-term potential. Sometimes bubbles collapse.

Few of the companies that were overvalued during the dot com bubble survived long enough to report earnings that would have justified their valuations. There were a few exceptions. Nvidia went public during the dot com bubble in 1999.

I was wanting to make a market like this, but wasn't sure how to operationalize it. It will be interesting to see if the current boom in AI technology lasts.

@JosephNoonan I don't think the hype is going away soon.

I decided to leave the resolution criteria somewhat loose and just set the resolution date far enough in the future that there would be post-mortem consensus on a bubble, even if it happened at the end of the year. I've been looking at some other potential resolution criteria to reinforce the consensus opinion resolution. This paper might be useful.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3670999

Testing for Asset Price Bubbles using Options Data

We present a new approach to identifying asset price bubbles based on options data. We estimate asset bubbles by exploiting the differential pricing between put

In November the average price to current earnings multiple of an S&P 500 firm, excluding the 14 most exposed to AI, was around 27. As we went to press, the multiple had dipped to 26. Meanwhile, the average multiple of firms in our AI bucket had leapt from 43 to 77.

These multiples might be justified. Excitement about Nvidia’s prospects has been prompted by orders for the company’s chips. During the firm’s earnings call representatives suggested that booming growth in income from data-centre chips would lift total revenues in the second quarter to $11bn, double their level in the previous year.

On the other hand, investors have been known to get overexcited about novel technologies.

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