I will use my judgement to determine the following criteria.
Meta valuation is over $1T
IPOs of AR/VR companies are happening
Companies' stocks are soaring 20%+ because they announced something AR/VR related
There is an AR/VR decacorn (private startup with more than $10B valuation)
The specialized press reports that venture capitalists are hiring VR/AR focused specialists and/or making dedicated AR/VR funds
There are famous investors and market commentators calling AR/VR a bubble
Sell-side analysts are writing reports that companies, including Apple, could have $100B+ in AR/VR market capitalization
I will settle to YES if at least 4 of the conditions above are met.
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@B I think probably yes, my timelines kind of account for the fact that meta are not good at what they're doing and most metaverses are not going to be used, it still all happens.
@makoyass People think the metaverse will have a profitable nft shoe store. No. I think it will be a den of piracy named after isekais.