Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?

1kṀ15k

2030

69%

chance

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Will there be a general consensus among economists that markets significantly overvalued AI companies at any point during this decade?

This market will close early and resolve as YES if there is clear evidence of a bubble before the resolution date. It will resolve as NO if there is still no clear evidence of an AI valuation bubble by the resolution date.

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Record number of S&P 500 companies mentioned “AI” on Q1 earnings calls

https://sherwood.news/business/number-of-s-and-p-500-companies-mentioning-ai-hits-record/

"An education tech startup has "hired" an AI avatar of the late computer science pioneer Alan Turing as a made-up executive, in what seems like a sure sign that the AI bubble has jumped the proverbial shark."

https://futurism.com/startup-hires-alan-turing-chatbot

In Latest Sign of Dot Com Style Bubble, Startup "Hires" Goofy AI Version of Alan Turing

An education tech startup has "hired" an AI avatar of the late computer science pioneer Alan Turing as a made-up executive.

Arguably platforms are far from overvalued, as are de novo disruptors, but the YC class was one of the most laughable in memory.

“Expedia. But with AI” — good luck with that.

—

Minor scandal yc funnels half its money to DEI and another half of the remainder to companies with no network or platform effects.

When 100% of their wins (and all tech wins) come from the platforms

I don't think it will be a bubble per say - but I think there will be lots of money spent on dumb things. I just think the value will overshadow the bubble-type-hype.

Edit: I no longer believe this. Far more hype is being sold than value.