Resolved YES - ICJ orders provisional measures https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-genocide-court-south-africa-27cf84e16082cde798395a95e9143c06

Clarification: will this market resolve YES if the ruling contains any provisional measures? At least one seems very likely, but the most severe PMs (unqualified demand to end military operations) are very unlikely.

@SamFlanders I will resolve it as YES if the ruling contains any provisional measures

good point here

Obviously Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians. However, the ICJ will respect world order where America is the unipolar world hegemon. USA allies are allowed to commit war crimes, and therefore, this spectacular case from South Africa and their international lawyers will fail.

Question re-titled to be more accurate

What's your standard for "against Israel" here?

From what I can read, the Jan 11 hearings and subsequent ruling 2 weeks afterward, are not about whether genocide status violations have happened (this would take much longer), but about emergency injunctions such that violations do not arise. Therefore, the ruling might be something like "Israel should ensure that delivery of humanitarian aid is unimpeded", or "no emergency injunction"; and definitely not "Israel did/did not do genocide". How would the first kind of ruling I mentioned resolve this market?

@CamillePerrin Thank you. To be clear, I know the ruling is not of the nature "did/did not do genocide".

I will change the question to something like "Will the ICJ rule in favour of emergency injunctions to prevent genocide status violations?" - please feel free to suggest a better wording, I made this market before having coffee.

@astroblob Sounds good!