South Africa has brought a case against Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), alleging that Israel has intent to violate its obligations under the 1948 Genocide Convention. The ICJ is holding public hearings on 11 and 12 January.
I will resolve this when the ICJ publishes a ruling and will link to a press release. If no ruling is published by EOY 2024, I will cancel this market.
I will resolve this market as YES if the ICJ ruling contains any provisional measures.
I will not be placing bets in this market.
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Resolved YES - ICJ orders provisional measures https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-genocide-court-south-africa-27cf84e16082cde798395a95e9143c06
What's your standard for "against Israel" here?
From what I can read, the Jan 11 hearings and subsequent ruling 2 weeks afterward, are not about whether genocide status violations have happened (this would take much longer), but about emergency injunctions such that violations do not arise. Therefore, the ruling might be something like "Israel should ensure that delivery of humanitarian aid is unimpeded", or "no emergency injunction"; and definitely not "Israel did/did not do genocide". How would the first kind of ruling I mentioned resolve this market?
@CamillePerrin Thank you. To be clear, I know the ruling is not of the nature "did/did not do genocide".
I will change the question to something like "Will the ICJ rule in favour of emergency injunctions to prevent genocide status violations?" - please feel free to suggest a better wording, I made this market before having coffee.