Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, before July 1, 2026 (at 11:59 PM UTC), any credible official source confirms that Iran has enriched uranium to a level of 90% or higher (weapons-grade purity).

Acceptable sources for confirmation include:

• Official reports or public statements from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) (accessible via iaea.org).

• Official intelligence assessments or public statements released by the United States government (such as the Department of Defense or Director of National Intelligence) or the Israeli government.

• Reports from major reputable international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg) citing verified intelligence or IAEA findings.

If no credible confirmation of 90% or higher uranium enrichment is reported by the deadline, or if Iran's highest enrichment level remains below 90% (such as the current 60% level), the market will resolve to NO.

For the purposes of this market, "fully enrich" is strictly defined as reaching an enrichment purity of 90% U-235 or greater. Lower thresholds (such as 20% or 60% enrichment), even if characterized as "highly enriched," do not satisfy the criteria for a YES resolution.

Background

As of June 2026, Iran maintains a stockpile of highly enriched uranium, including over 440 kilograms enriched to 60% purity. This 60% stockpile represents approximately 99% of the enrichment work required to reach the 90% weapons-grade threshold. Amidst military tensions, a US blockade, and stalled bilateral negotiations, Iranian officials have repeatedly warned they may bridge the remaining technical gap and begin 90% enrichment if military strikes against their territory resume.

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