https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2050376604426395709?s=20
Trump: Iran's food stockpile will run out within 3 months
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between May 2, 2026, and August 2, 2026, there is an official, credible announcement or widely reported confirmation from an internationally recognized humanitarian organization (such as the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) or the World Food Programme (WFP)) or a reputable major news outlet (e.g., Reuters, AP, Bloomberg) stating that Iran's national strategic food stockpile has been exhausted or has reached a state of critical non-availability for the general population.
If no such confirmation of the exhaustion of Iran's national food stockpile occurs by August 2, 2026, the market will resolve to "No."
Background
Since the onset of conflict in the Persian Gulf in February 2026, Iran has faced significant economic pressure, including currency depreciation and the disruption of imports via the Strait of Hormuz. As of early 2026, reports have noted rising food prices and a preemptive government ban on food exports, which officials have characterized as a move to ensure domestic food security. The conflict has impeded the movement of critical agricultural inputs and staple foods, and international organizations continue to monitor the humanitarian and food security situation in the region.
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