Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States obtains physical possession — even temporarily — of Iranian enriched uranium (in any form or enrichment level) through a negotiated agreement, military seizure, or other means by December 31, 2027. Resolution requires credible confirmation from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), U.S. State Department, or major international news sources that uranium has been transferred to U.S. control. It also resolves YES if the U.S. seizes the uranium to transfer it to another country.

The market resolves NO if no such transfer occurs by the deadline, or if Iran retains all enriched uranium within its borders or transfers it to a third country (not the U.S.).

Background

The U.S. has insisted Iran's enriched uranium stockpile must be transferred to a third country, while Iran intended to retain its enriched uranium within its borders. A critical issue in negotiations was Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium and its potential destruction, for which the US would agree to lift economic sanctions.

Following Israeli attacks on Iran in June 2025, Iran suspended nuclear talks indefinitely, and the United States subsequently carried out strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Iran maintains a stockpile of 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60% purity. Iran has resisted demands that it halt uranium enrichment on its soil or hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

Considerations

While the U.S. demanded uranium be transferred to a third country, Iran's position has been to retain enriched uranium within its borders. This fundamental disagreement was a major obstacle in 2025-2026 negotiations. Additionally, the IAEA cannot verify the size of Iran's uranium stockpile at affected nuclear facilities due to lack of access.

This description was generated by AI.