This market will resolve to the U.S. state that is determined to be the "tipping-point contest" for control of the Senate following the 2026 midterm elections.

The "tipping-point contest" will be defined as the 2026 Senate contest that gives the 19th-best margin to Republicans and 17th-best margin to Democrats out of the 35 seats up for election in 2026 (the 33 Class II seats and 2) BY TWO-PARTY VOTE SHARE, because this would give Democrats their 51st seat (counting Angus King and Bernie Sanders) or Republicans their 50th needed for Senate control.

In Nebraska, Dan Osborn will be considered the Democratic candidate for this market. In Montana, if both Seth Bodnar and Alani Bankhead (or a different person on the Democratic line) are on the ballot, whichever of the two receives more votes will be considered the Democratic candidate.

Close date is indicative only. This market will close whenever results are officially finalized in all states that could reasonably be the tipping-point contest by the relevant election authorities.

As resolution is unlikely to be ambiguous, I may trade in this market.