Resolution criteria

This market contains multiple independent options corresponding to different outcomes ("Condition X") in the Victorian state election scheduled for 28 November 2026.

Each option resolves as follows:

• N/A if the specified condition does not occur according to official election results published by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) or a consensus of credible media outlets.

• YES if the specified condition occurs and the Coalition leads Pauline Hanson's One Nation in the national primary vote opinion polling average in Victoria at the end of December 2026 (i.e., the Coalition's primary vote percentage is strictly higher than One Nation's). See below for how the polling averages are calculated.

• NO if the specified condition occurs and the Coalition does not lead One Nation in national primary vote opinion polling at the end of December 2026. A tie would resolve NO.

• Any references to the Coalition in the answers or market rules will refer to a sum of votes, seats, or polling numbers for the Liberal Party, National Party, Country Liberal Party, and Liberal National Party of Queensland, as appropriate, regardless of whether the parties are in coalition nationally or in Victoria.

Polling Average Calculation:

The polling average will be a raw average of the most recent poll conducted in December 2026 and published by close date by each of the following pollsters:

• Roy Morgan

• Pyxis (Newspoll)

• Essential

• YouGov

• DemosAU

If one of the above pollsters does not conduct a poll in December that is published by close date, it will not have a poll included in the average.

As resolution is unlikely to be ambiguous, I may trade in this market.