According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which publishes its statistics every May, there were 1,984,180 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers in May 2022, over 1% of the US labor force. The number of truck drivers has been growing steadily since 2020, and the BLS predicts it to grow by 90,000 from 2021 to 2031.
But autonomous vehicles have the potential to disrupt this. Will the number of people employed as truck drivers in May 2026 be at least 200,000 lower than in May 2023?
See also:
/ahalekelly/will-autonomous-trucks-be-widesprea
/ahalekelly/will-more-than-200000-us-truck-driv-9503c54a3c4f
Related questions
The title phrasing doesn't really match the actual question criteria, which would be better summarized as "Will there be 200k fewer truck drivers in 2026 as compared to now?"
After all, Yellow Line (a large US trucking company) just went out of business. I don't know quite how many truckers they employ, but it's possible they could satisfy the title criteria on their own.
@StrayClimb I will use the linked BLS occupation category. My guess is that safety drivers in autonomous vehicles would count, but if they're supervising or tele-operating the truck from an operations center they wouldn't, but that's up to the BLS.
@ahalekelly yeah I'm trying to distinguish between people getting out of work vs transitioning to another job title