(Similar to: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-the-bls-show-growth-in-softwar)
The BLS predicts 10% growth in this job outlook over ten years. But, self-driving trucks? Anyone?
This market will default to resolution by this source: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/delivery-truck-drivers-and-driver-sales-workers.htm. If not, will look for best available parallel.
Right now, it lists 1,705,600 jobs.
(For the record, median pay is $39,950 per year or $19.21 per hour)
Resolves to YES if the number listed is at least 1,710,000 jobs at resolution, however lagged that measurement might be at the time.
Resolves to NO if the number is less than that.
This isn't really going to be about self-driving trucks. The trucks could all drive themselves perfectly and they human would still be employed and just ride in the truck. Per the website linked for resolution
"What Delivery Truck Drivers and Driver/Sales Workers Do
Delivery truck drivers and driver/sales workers pick up, transport, and drop off packages and small shipments within a local region or urban area.
Work Environment
Delivery truck drivers and driver/sales workers have a physically demanding job. Driving a truck for long periods can be tiring. When loading and unloading cargo, drivers do a lot of lifting, carrying, and walking."
This is more a bet on box and handcart operating robots rather than self-driving trucks and I don't expect the robots to be a large impact on this timeframe.