Will driverless semi trucks be operating commercially in 2024?
24
173
490
Dec 31
13%
chance

Will self-driving semi-trucks with no driver be widespread in any country in 2024? Must be >100 trucks operating with no driver and hauling customer cargo. If it's one or two fixed routes that doesn't count.

See also:
/ahalekelly/will-more-than-200000-us-truck-driv

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Feels like the timeframe is a bit too short

Current status:
Aurora: Operating 30 trucks, 50 trips per week on 2 fixed routes in Texas, with safety drivers. Plans to launch commercial operations in 2024, but will need to raise more funding to get there.
Waymo: Signed deal with UPS in 2021, now reportedly delaying the truck project "by a few quarters" to focus on robotaxis, no announced dates

Gatik: 45 box trucks operating with safety drivers, smaller than semi-trucks so they would not qualify for this market. Operating one 7-mile route in Arkansas with no safety driver. Plans to go fully autonomous in 2024 with 25 trucks in the Dallas area.

Torc Robotics (subsidiary of Daimler): Reportedly "on track to deploy autonomous trucks within the next year or two"
Kodiak: 6 trips per week between Atlanta and Dallas with a safety driver
Embark: Going bankrupt