Will the population of the USA decline in the year 2050?
17
146
2053
52%
chance

According to the US Census Bureau. Resolves YES if the The census bureau population estimate for 2050 is lower than their estimate for 2049.

Resolves NO if it is higher

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What do you mean by ‘in the year’? Relative to what?

@NicoDelon The census bureau publishes a population estimate for each year. If 2050's population is lower than 2049 than this market resolves YES. I'll update the description to be more clear

@DylanSlagh I don’t know how anyone could have any confidence in predicting population changes between those two years, but ok.

in the year, or by the year?

@cloudprism updated the description to be more clear

/ahalekelly/will-misaligned-ai-kill-50-of-the-h-53baa02e69ba

But if the population of the USA is zero, this resolves NO by definition.

I suppose there are lots of ways this could go YES or NO, hard to judge it.

@MartinRandall I would likely resolve N/A if the USA ceases to exist 😂